Below-replacement fertility: Determinants and prospects in South Asia |
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Authors: | Bruce K Caldwell John C Caldwell |
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Institution: | (1) Present address: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, 0200 Canberra, ACT, Australia |
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Abstract: | Although 10 countries and two of China’s special administrative areas, totalling 1,528 million people or 44 per cent of Asia’s
total population, are now characterized by fertility rates below long-term replacement levels, no such countries are yet found
in South Asia. This paper first examines the characteristics of 12 Asian administrations with very low fertility at various
stages of their fertility declines and then compares the findings with the present situation in three South Asian countries,
Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. This allows a prediction of when the South Asian countries will reach replacement fertility
in accord with the trends in two key criteria, the percentage of girls in secondary school and the infant mortality rate.
These conclusions are then buttressed for each country by the findings of anthropological demographic research programs in
which the authors were involved. The predictions are that all three countries will attain a total fertility rate of 2.1 within
the next 30 years and that the UN2000 Revision of the medium population projection is plausible in that regard. However, the authors part company with the UN projection
in their assessment that the nature of these societies means that they will all subsequently fall to still lower fertility
levels. |
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Keywords: | Asia Southern Asia India Bangladesh Sri Lanka fertility decline below-replacement fertility population forecasts marriagposte ponement education of women |
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