全球价值链视角下我国对外依存程度分析

嵌入全球价值链可促进我国经济发展,却也使我国更加依赖于外国市场,从而增加了国家风险。本文以全球价值链为视角,基于世界投入产出模型构建了增加值对外依存程度的测算方法,对当前的不同测算方法进行了比较,提出了传统贸易、全球价值链的简单和复杂参与下的对外依存程度。最后,利用2000-2014年的世界投入产出表进行测算。结果表明:我国的对外依存程度呈现先升后降的态势;传统贸易下对外依存程度的变化是我国对外依存度变化的主要原因。这意味着:平衡全球价值链嵌入和国家风险的关键是提高全球价值链的参与程度。本文的方法和结论可以为我国政府管理国家风险和贸易谈判提供支持。

Analysis on China's Degree of Dependence on Foreign Trade in the View of Global Value Chains

Global value chains are important for developing countries. One country had to build complete production chains to produce and sell goods in the international market in the past. However, in the era of GVCs, one country does not need to build complete production chains, and have opportunities to produce intermediate goods imported by other countries to embed in GVCs. So, embedding in GVCs has promoted China's economic development fastly. On the other hand, it makes China more dependent on foreign markets, and increases China's country risk which means risk coming from other countries when participating in international activities. The problem is that GVCs makes traditional index difficult to accurately measure the degree of dependence on foreign trade, because goods exporting to other countries may contain other countries' value-added. The consequence is that traditional index may overestimate the degree of dependence on foreign markets. Another problem is that methods in literature do not distinguish foreign trade from trade for GVCs. So, based on the perspective of GVCs, a method is constructed in this paper to calculate the degree of value-added of dependence on foreign trade using the world input-output model, different calculation methods in literature are compared, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade is proposed in the traditional trade and in the global value chains of the simple and complex participation. Finally, world input-output tables from 2000 to 2014 are used to calculate. The results show that the degree of external dependence of China increases firstly and then falls down; the primary cause of changes in dependence degree of our country on foreign trade is changes in the degree of dependence on foreign trade in the traditional trade. It is implied that the key to balance the global value chain embedded and external dependence is to improve the degree of participation in the global value chains. This paper can be helpful for China's government in the following aspects. First, a new index is supplied to assess risk from foreign goods markets. Second, the result that China's degree of economic dependence on foreign trade is smaller can be employed in trade negotiation and increase China's negotiation advantage. Third, it can be helpful for making policies. For example, China not only encourages firms to participate in globalization by traditional trade, but also by trade for GVCs.