基于元网络分析的重大基础设施建设项目风险评估框架与实证

重大基础设施项目具有战略性、集成性、复杂性等特征,项目容易受到多种风险因素的综合影响,导致项目目标的偏离。现有风险评估与风险决策的方法缺乏对于风险因素、风险事件之间关联的分析。为了实现重大基础设施建设项目综合系统的风险评估,本文采用元网络分析方法,构建项目目标、风险事件和风险因素的交互模型,揭示重大基础设施风险事件发生机制的黑箱过程。风险评估过程中,通过多个网络叠加运算分析每个风险因素对于各种风险事件以及项目各目标的影响情况,改进了以往仅对风险因素单一影响程度的风险评估方法。同时,本研究选择我国某河流水电站过坝运输项目方案比选的风险评估过程验证方法的适用性。

Meta-Network Analysis Based Risk Evaluation Framework and Empirical Study of Major Infrastructure Construction Projects

The major infrastructure projects are characterized by their strategicness, integration and complexity, and these characteristics directly affect and cause high risk level. Risk identification, analysis and assessment in the early stage of these projects have significant influence on the project objectives, therefore it is necessary to establish an effective risk analysis framework of major infrastructure construction projects. Previous research has not fully recognized the risks in the major infrastructure construction projects, and lacked of consideration of associations between risks and the management of multi-objectives. Hence, the purpose of this research was to develop a comprehensive evaluation model for risk management of major infrastructure construction projects. First, the risk list is identified and a risk interaction model consisting of three hierarchies of project objectives, risk events, and risk factors is established. Then, networks between the three hierarchies are identified, and a meta-network of risk management is built based on meta-network analysis. Subsequently, the links in the networks and the risk levels of risk factors are quantified, and critical risk factors are identified. Meanwhile the scheme comparison and selection of the dam transportation on river hydropower station project in China is chosen as a case study to verify the applicability of this method.The results show that the most important risk factors are the misjudgment of decision-making, such as miscalculation of economic and social environment, and the environment-related factors, such as destruction of ecosystem. Besides, among the design schemes, navigation structures have the higher risk level than dam getting-over scheme, and as time goes on, the overall risk levels of these construction schemesare increasing. A risk evaluation method based on meta-network analysis, is propased the black box process of the occurrence mechanism of risks in major infrastructure projects is revealed, and knowledge for future project risk assessment is provided.