利用RDU评价车牌拍卖和年费方式的支付意愿

城市私车牌照拍卖被认为是控制私车拥有量的有效手段,对此将购车人分为三类,采用依序效用函数和概率权重函数分别讨论了观望效用为常数和变量时本地和外地车牌之间的依赖关系以及买家的支付意愿,从而不仅显示了观望效用对支付意愿的影响,而且也证明了概率权重函数的弹性系数对判断车牌选择倾向、刻画支付意愿大小和区分买家类型都具有重要作用。此外还就新提出的车牌限制措施-年费制度潜在的实施效果进行了分析,说明该制度将导致外地车牌对使用成本的变动更加敏感,而且长期来说也难以为继。

Evaluation of Private Car Owner's Willingness to Pay for License Plate Auction Price using Rank-Dependent Utility (RDU)

Legal restriction on the ownership of private cars,such as license plate auction,is an important measure to control the explosive increase of the number of private cars in a city.However,an increasing number of people are casting doubt on the justifiability and rationality of current legal restrictions because of the continuing rise of license plate auction price.Many non-local markets emerge due to the great disparity among license plate auction prices.The administration cost and complexity on local transportation are elevating because of the increase of the number of private cars with non-local license plates. This paper categorizes consumers into three different types,employs the rank-dependent utility(RDU) and probability weight function(PWF) to discuss the cost relationship and owner’s willingness to pay(WTP) for local and non-local license plate price,and investigates the impact of plat auction price change on different owners’ WTP.The result indicates that both the elastics of PWF and the utility of wait-and-see can determine the direction of WTP.The elastics of PWF can influence the license plate choice and identify buyer types.Specifically,increase in auction price in local market drives people to buy plates in non-local places.If supply is sufficient,competition will lower the total cost,and result in the surging of non-local plates in local places.In addition,people will prefer local plates when the utility contribution rate of local plates is no lower than that of non-local ones.Meanwhile,consumers withhold different subjective probability on the choice of local and non-local license plates,and receive different individual benefits when auction price changes,depending on the form of PWF.In summary,the elasticity of PWF plays an important role in determining license plate selection,evaluating WTP and differentiating consumer types. In addition,the paper analyzes the possible effect of annuity on market analysis as conducted by Singapore government.Plate prices in different places are closely related to each other under the annuity policy.A slight increase in local license plate price will cause a significant increase in non-local license plate cost.A proper rise of local license plate price will effectively control the price surging issue.Non-local price is more sensitive to cost,and WTP completely depends on both elaticity.Meanwhile,increase in the probability of successively choosing local license plates will elevate the value and lower the WTP.The result indicates that this mechanism will result in increased sensitivity of non-local license plate to administration cost,and eventually disrupt long-term operation. This paper provides a better understanding of the licence plate auction business.The findings of this paper have important implications.Firstly,people’s choices of license plates under the circumstances that two types of restriction policy exist together(auction and annuity) during the transition can be taken into consideration in order that whether annuity will be effectively carried out can be explained.Firstly,when both auction and annuity restriction policies exist people’s choices of license plates need to be taken into consideration.Secondly,this study can help regulate local secondary private car market as a supplement to the current restriction policy.The optimal allocation of market resources can then be achieved.