| 原油价格波动对我国物价的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 中国年投入产出表分析应用课题组,许宪春,彭志龙,刘起运,佟仁城,邱玥,杨翠红.原油价格波动对我国物价的影响[J].统计研究,2010,27(12):23-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 中国年投入产出表分析应用课题组 许宪春 彭志龙 刘起运 佟仁城 邱玥 杨翠红 |
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| 摘 要： | 当今社会，国际原油对我国的经济社会发展起到重大影响，所以研究国际原油价格波动对我国CPI的影响具有重要意义。本文以国际原油价格对我国PPI和CPI的影响为研究重点，首先分析测算国际原油价格对国内原油价格的传导情况；然后利用2007年135部门投入产出局部闭模型下的价格模拟，测算国内原油价格波动对我国PPI和CPI造成的影响；最后综合以上两步，得到国际原油价格对我国CPI的影响情况。结果表明：国际原油价格上涨1%将引起国内PPI上涨0.176%,国内CPI上涨0.124%。随着我国对外依存度和对原油需求的增大，国际原油价格波动的影响也将越来越大。最后进行分析并给出政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 原油价格 PPI CPI 投入产出 价格模拟 协整 |
Impacts Of Price Fluctuations of Crude Oil on PPI and CPI in China |
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| Input-Output Table of China,Analysis and Application Research Group.Impacts Of Price Fluctuations of Crude Oil on PPI and CPI in China[J].Statistical Research,2010,27(12):23-29. |
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| Authors: | Input-Output Table of China Analysis and Application Research Group |
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| Institution: | Input-Output Table of China 2007 Analysis and Application Research Group |
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| Abstract: | Studying the impacts of international crude oil price fluctuations on China's CPI is so important as the international crude oil has played a significant impact on economic and social development of China.Focusing on the impacts of international crude oil price on PPI and CPI in China,this paper firstly analyzes and measures the transmission case of crude oil price from abroad to domestic;then using the price simulation under the IO Local Closed Model with 135 departments of 2007,measures the impacts of dom... |
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| Keywords: | Crude Oil Price PPI CPI Input-Output Price Simulation Cointegration |
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