中俄战略协作机制的有效性及其改善

中俄战略协作机制具有自身特点和丰富内涵,它以双边机制为核心,以多种国际组织为辅助。双边机制形成了以两国总理年度会晤为核心,以多领域合作机制为组成的周密体系。学术界对国际制度有效性的评估主要有遵约评价和结果导向评价。我们采用后者,选取了中俄两国在联合国安理会中投否决票的一致性、中俄双边经贸额的变化、民间互信程度的变化和双方显性冲突的数量变化作为评估指标。分析结果表明,战略协作机制促进了中俄两国在各领域的合作,体现了其有效性。但与中俄两国设定的新时代中俄关系发展目标相比,中俄战略协作机制还存在着不足,表现为过于理想化、约束力不够、政府与民间二元分化和效率降低等。为了应对现实需求,中俄两国有必要对其进行改善:以经济领域为突破点,推动两国经济产业实现分工合作;加强中俄战略协作机制在塑造市场、引导民间经济合作上的作用;提高双方在战略协作关系中的责任标准,逐步建立起奖惩机制;强化中俄战略协作机制的合法性与权威性、扩大其国际影响。

Mechanisms of the China-Russia Strategic Partnership: Effectiveness Assessment and the Need for Improvement

At the heart of the China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership are the bilateral mechanisms, which are complemented by various multilateral avenues. The bilateralism is a well-organized system of cooperative mechanisms on multiple issues areas centered around the regular meetings between the two countries’ prime ministers. The effectiveness of international institutions can be assessed in two ways by focusing on either compliance or the results. Adopting the latter approach, this paper employs the following indicators: voting records in the UN Security Council, bilateral trade volume and economic cooperation, mutual trust among the public, and finally bilateral conflicts or frictions. The analysis shows that the partnership has been effective in promoting cooperation between China and Russia in various fields. However, it still falls short of the goals the two countries set for the new era. The problems include unpracticality, insufficient bindingness, the government-private dichotomy, and low efficiency. To address the shortcomings, it is necessary for China and Russia to optimize the bilateral strategic cooperation mechanisms. They need to coordinate their division of labor in the economic field, and enhance the partnership’s role in guiding economic cooperation between private sectors. They need also to raise the standards of responsibility and gradually establish a system of rewards and punishments. Finally, both need to strengthen the legitimacy and authority of the China-Russia strategic coordination mechanisms and expand their international influence.