基于股权结构的财务危机预警模型构建

本文试图将公司股权结构变量引入到财务危机预警的研究中,首先运用Logistic回归分析对引入模型的变量进行了筛选,然后将筛选得到的变量进行主成分分析得到五个综合的变量,最后通过对五个综合的变量进行Fisher判别分析建立了一个上市公司的财务危机预警模型。本文选取的样本全部为上市工业企业,以期建立一个行业预警模型提高预警能力。结果表明,模型的预测能力较强。

The Model of Financial Distress Prediction Based on Ownership Structure

This paper tries to introduce the company ownership struc- ture into the research of the financial distress prediction. At first, the paper makes use of the logistic regression analysis in selecting the variables, which will be used in the model, then it carries out princi- pal component analysis based on the selected variables and generates five comprehensive variables. Finally, through the fisher discrimina- tion analysis of the five comprehensive variables, the paper estab- lishes the financial distress prediction model of listed companies. The samples selected by the paper are through listed industrial enterprises in order to establish the industrial financial distress prediction model to improve the predicting ability. The result indicates that the model is relatively effective in the prediction.