服务于天气预报研究的超级计算机投资收益分析

在资源方面的潜在投资的几种成本收益分析方法方面，有几种适用于计算成本收益的经济学方法：（1）效益转移法；（2）基于调查的非市场价值评估法；（3）折扣法；（4）统计生命价值法；（5）专家启发法；（6）影响因素图表法；（7）敏感性分析法等。根据2003年进行的一项研究，特地评估了为美国国家海洋和大气管理局所购买的新的超级计算机设备的潜在收益。该超级计算机不仅有助于改进天气预报服务，而且能使许多经济部门潜在获益，如各种政府机构、一些私营工业部门和单个家庭住户等。通过咨询美国国家海洋和大气管理局的工作人员可知，这些经济部门主要集中在家庭住户、某些农作物和公共安全等领域。美国国家海洋和大气管理局购买的新的超级计算机潜在的社会效益是显著的。基于一些前提假设，仅家庭住户所得到的收益大约在3400万到23200万美元（以2002年美元为基准）之间。某些农业经济部门所获得的收益与避免因天气原因导致死亡的潜在收益一样多。这三个部门的平均总收益的现值约为11600万美元（以2002年美元为基准）。而这仅为总收益额的下限，因为它尚不包含其它几个也具有重要收益价值的行业，如建筑和能源行业等。美国国家海洋和大气管理局投资购买新型超级计算机的收益净现值约为10500万美元（以2002年美元为基准）。

Benefits of Investing in A Supercomputer to Support Weather Forecasting Research： An example of Benefit-Cost Analysis

This paper demonstrates methods for benefit-cost analysis （BCA） of potential investments in resources for research to improve weather forecasting. This study discusses and demonstrates several economic methods applicable to BCA , including （ 1 ） benefits transfer, （2） surveybased nonmarket valuation, （3） discounting, （4） value of statistical life, （5） expert elicitation, （6） influence diagramming, and （7） sensitivity analysis. We discuss a study performed in 2003 to meet the U.S. Office of Management and Budget requirements for benefit-cost analysis for large investments by a U. S. federal agency. Specifically, we evaluated the potential benefits of the purchase of new supercomputing equipment for the U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA）. Investing in a new NOAA supercomputer could lead to improvements in weather forecasting and would potentially benefit many sectors of the economy, including various government agencies, several private industry, sectors, and individual households. Consultations with NOAA staff focused the benefits assessment on the following areas： the household sector a select set of agricultural crops public safety. The potential societal benefits from the purchase of a new supereomputer for NOAA were estimated to be significant. The benefits in the household sector ＇alone ranged from $ 34 million to $ 232 million （2002 US dollars）, depending on several assumptions. The benefits to selected segments of the agriculture economy were similar, as was the potential for avoided weather-related fatalities. Using the base-case assumptions, average total benefits from these three sectors were estimated at $ 116 million in present value （2002 US dollars）. The analysis described here represents a lower bound on total benefits because it does not include several other industries that would also realize significant benefits, such construction and ergy . The net present value of the investment in a new supercomputer for NOAA was estimated at $ 105 million （2002 US dollars）.