中国移动3G与2G协调发展的系统动力学分析

3G牌照一旦发放,在未来几年内,中国移动将面临着同时运营两张移动网络的问题。对中国移动来讲,在3G与2G即将共存的过渡时期,协调2G和3G的发展,合理配置有限的资源,确定对3G的投资规模具有十分重要的意义。系统动力学的理论和建模方法是本文研究的基础,2G与3G的协调发展是本文研究的主要对象。2G与3G的协调发展体现在2G与3G的网络规模、用户数和年利润等方面。本文对各个子系统进行了具体分析,建立了因果关系图及流图,并建立了一系列的系统动力学方程。借助对模型仿真结果的初步分析,进一步阐明了各个要素之间的关系。通过对外生变量不断的调整,实现了对仿真模型的控制,最后,我们得出了较好的仿真结果。

The systematic dynamics analysis of 2G and 3G's harmonious development in China Mobile

With the issue of the 3G license,it can be predicted that in the next few years,China Mobile will have to run 2G and 3G nets at the same time.During the transitional period when 2G and 3G networks are running simultaneously,it is very significant for China Mobile to actively promote the harmonious development of them,to properly distribute the limited resources and to timely decide on the investment scale upon 3G.This thesis is based on the systematic theory of dynamics and modeling method and is focused on the harmonious development of 2G and 3G,which includes their network scales,users,the total profit and some other aspects.In addition to detailed analyses of the subsystems,causality relationship chart and flowing chart are set up in the thesis,and a series of System Dynamics equations are established.Through initial analysis of the model emulation result,interaction of all influencing factors is expounded further.By adjusting values of the variables constantly,the control for the simulation model is realized.Finally,we get a better simulation result.