劳动力转移与农地流转:孰因孰果?

已有研究并没有完全一致的证据表明劳动力转移和农地转出两者之间，究竟孰为因孰为果，在计量处理上对内生性问题也未给予足够关注并有效解决。本文采用广东、江西两省的农户调查数据和气候数据库数据，寻找农地流转和劳动力转移的有效工具变量，从互为因果的两个方向验证分析了农地流转和劳动力转移之间的关系，研究表明：农地转出不会显著影响劳动力转移，但劳动力转移显著影响农地转出。在明确两个变量之间因果关系作用方向的基础上，采用Probit模型的回归分析表明：在统计意义上，劳动力转移正向显著促进农地流转，但是从系数值看，劳动力转移比例增加1%，农地转出增加仅为0.264%，表明在经济意义上，劳动力转移对农地流转影响程度相对较弱。由此提出，促进我国农地流转集中及其农业规模经营发展，通过“人动驱动地动”仅是制度安排的一个方面，需匹配其他相关的政策制度一并形成合力才能发挥激励效应。

Which is the Cause,Labor Migration or Land Rental?

The empirical study on the non-agricultural employment and the transfer of agricultural land did not reach a consensus; also the endogenous problem was not fully attended and solved.Based on the survey data of farmers in Guangdong and Jiangxi and the number of rainy days in May 2013 as an instrument variable of land transfer in 2014,this article found that land transfer did not significantly affect the non-agricultural employment of labor,but labor migration remarkably affected land transfer.Furthermore,the Probit model regression found that:(1) Statistically,labor migration positively promoted land transfer; (2) Numerically,the possibility of land transfer increased by only 0.264% if that of labor migration increased by 1%,which implies a weak effect of the latter on the former.Therefore,it was proposed that the government should improve relevant policies and make joint efforts to motivate the transfer and concentration of agricultural land,and the scale development of agriculture besides the current Policy of Land Transfer Driven by Labor Migration.