计划生育利益导向政策对生育行为的影响

基于中国各省成文以来的计划生育政策和生育选择数据，本文建立了计划生育利益导向政策对生育数量影响效应的面板模型。计量结果显示：利益导向政策对生育数量有着显著的负向影响，但影响程度远不及经济社会因素对生育数量的影响，更不及生育约束政策对生育数量的影响；利益导向政策内部不同措施出现与政策设计相背离的情况。基于此，本文提出了多推行易于落实的利益导向政策、改变利益导向政策的作用范围、政策设计区分不同目标群体的需求以及维护政府公信力等四条有效提升利益导向政策导向作用的建议。

The Impact of Benefit-oriented Family Planning Policy on Reproductive Behaviors

Based on the documents of family planning policy of all the provinces in china and the childbearing data from national censuses and surveys, this paper set up a panel model to measure the impact of benefits-oriented family planning policy on the childbearing behaviors. The results show the benefit-oriented family planning policy has impact on the childbearing number, but the impact of policy is weaker than social and economic factors as well as the policy restrictions, and there are some deviations from the policy intention in the benefit-oriented policy. This paper suggests that the government should work out more practical and feasible benefit-oriented policy, adjust the existing the scope of benefit-oriented policy, design policy based on the requirement of different group of people, and maintain the credibility of the government in order to enhance the efficiency of benefit-oriented family planning policy.