POLARIZATION,SECULARIZATION, OR DIFFERENCES AS USUAL? The Denominational Cleavage in U.S. Social Attitudes Since the 1970s

Scholarly debates over modernization and social change in the late twentieth century have raised far-reaching questions about the possible consequences for religious group conflict and differences in behavior, identity, and opinion. Three general theoretical interpretations—polarization, secularization, and stable influence—have been asserted in the relevant literatures, yet which interpretation might best capture the effects of religious group memberships during the past three decades remains unresolved. We seek to advance research and debate on the changing influence of religion by investigating questions about the magnitude of, and trends in, religious groups differences in attitudes toward issues relating to gender, abortion, and sexuality during the past three decades. Building from past research, our analyses make use of three innovations: we apply a new typology of religious group memberships; we evaluate main versus interaction effect models to gauge evidence of change in the magnitude of religious influence; and we use indices that enable comparisons of the magnitude of group-based differences in attitudes across distinct issues and over time. Of the seven different issues we analyze, two reveal evidence of growing group-based differences, while the remaining five are characterized by a pattern of stability. We discuss the significance of these results for understanding limits of secularization theory, considering in conclusion how our results contribute to ongoing debate over the effects of religious group memberships.