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| 台湾入闽旅游市场趋势预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈超. 台湾入闽旅游市场趋势预测[J]. 汕头大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2007, 23(4): 37-41 |
| 作者姓名： | 陈超 |
| 作者单位： | 莆田学院旅游系,福建,莆田,351100 |
| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金;福建省民进调研课题 |
| 摘 要： | 台湾入闽旅游客源市场对福建旅游业的发展有相当明显的影响。以1998–2005年台湾入闽旅游人次占赴大陆比例及台湾赴大陆旅游人次为依据,应用灰色系统理论构建GM(1,1)模型预测入闽旅游客源市场趋势,通过后验差比值C和小误差概率P分析表明,模型精度高;用该模型预测了福建"十一五"台湾入闽旅游客源市场规模,并结合调研情况综合分析台湾入闽旅游市场特征,为福建旅游行政管理部门和企业对台宣传促销提供参考。 |
| 关 键 词： | 海峡两岸 GM(1,1)模型 灰色预测 台湾入闽旅游市场 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4225(2007)04-0037-005 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-02 |
Forecasts of Tendency of Taiwan Tourists in Fujian Province and Analysis of Its Characteristics Based on Gray-forecasting Model GM(1,1) |
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| CHEN Chao. Forecasts of Tendency of Taiwan Tourists in Fujian Province and Analysis of Its Characteristics Based on Gray-forecasting Model GM(1,1)[J]. Journal of Shantou University(Humanities Edition), 2007, 23(4): 37-41 | |
| Authors: | CHEN Chao |
| Abstract: | Taiwan tourists in Fujian province have a great influence on Fujian tourism. This paper sets up a GM (1,1) model using Gray-system-theory to forecast the tendency of Taiwan tourists in Fujian province according to the ratios of person-time of Taiwan tourists to Fujian province and China and persons-time of Taiwan tourists in China from 1998 to 2005. The result shows the precision degree well through analysis of correlative value of posterior error C and micro-error probability p. With the model it may forecast the scale of Taiwan tourists market in "The Eleventh Five-Year-Plan Period" in Fujian province. Meanwhile, through the comprehensive analysis of characteristics of Taiwan tourists in Fujian Province, the paper aims to offer reference for Taiwan promotion from Fujian's tourism and management departments and enterprises. |
| Keywords: | GM(1 1) Model Gray-forecasting Taiwan tourists in Fujian province |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |