中东权力格局转换对阿以和平进程的影响

冷战结束后,以色列维持了在中东政治和阿以和平进程中的强势地位,这种地位是冷战后美国在中东独霸地位的单极格局所决定的。全球金融危机的蔓延与伊拉克和阿富汗问题久拖不决消耗了美国霸权赖以生存的硬实力与软实力,奥巴马政府不得不调整政策,转而在阿以之间寻求更加平衡的中东政策,以色列自"9·11"以来的战略优势期恐将终结。随着中东格局由美国单极独霸格局向美、欧、俄、中、印以及伊朗、以色列、沙特、埃及、土耳其等地区大国构成的多元权力格局的演化,政治优势开始向阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界倾斜。在此背景下,以色列、巴勒斯坦和其他阿拉伯国家需转换安全观念,争取在联合国决议的基础上以更加积极的姿态参与阿以和平进程,实现中东持久和平。

Middle East Power Pattern's Impact on Arab-Israeli Peace Process

After the Cold War, Israel has maintained its strong position in the Middle East politics and Arab-Israeli peace process which was driven by US hegemony in the Middle East and its unipolar power. The spread of the global financial crisis and the Iraq and Afghanistan problems have been consuming US hard and soft powers, the Obama administration has to adjust US policy to seek a more balanced Middle East policy within Arabs and Israelis, and Israeli strategic advantage period since 9/11 will end. With the Middle East power pattern translating from US unilateral hegemony to multipolar pattern consisted of US, Europe, Russia, China, India, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and other regional powers, the advantages began to tilt to the Arab-Islamic world. In this context, Israel, Palestine and the other Arab countries should change their security concepts, participate in the Arab-Israeli peace process on the basis of UN resolutions, and achieve lasting peace in the Middle East.