论外债管理中利率变动的风险及其测度

随着国际资本流动的规模和速度不断加大,对于利用外资发展本国经济的国家而言,无疑增加了其面临的国际金融风险,而规避或降低风险的关键在于对金融风险的正确把握和准确度量。本文拟就债务国在借款期初以固定利率和浮动利率借入一种和多种外币的情况下,构建债务国所面临的国际利率变动的风险损失函数,并作实例分析。最后,给出几点说明。本文建立的度量公式为债务国准确计算国际利率风险,并进而有效地规避或降低国际利率风险提供了一种新的途径。

Interest Rate Risks and Measures in the Management of Foreign Debts

The scale and the speed of international capital flow are becoming larger and faster as the international economy is getting integrated and the finance is getting much freer, which undoubtedly brings more international financial risks to host countries. The key to avoiding or reducing financial risks is the right understanding and accurate measures of financial risks. This paper, on account of the case in which host nations borrow one or several foreign currencies at fixed and/or floating rates at the beginning of the loan duration, constructs the function of risk losses the capital borrowing nation will face in case the international rate changes and analyzes an actual case, and finally, gives several explanations. The measurement formula set up in this paper will provide a new choice for host nations to accurately calculate the risks of international interest rates, and then avoid or reduce the risks of international interest rates effectively.