人口城市化与产业结构变迁——基于湖南省的实证检验

本文从城市化与产业结构优化的关系出发运用基于VAR模型的动态计量经济方法对湖南省人口城市化对产业结构优化的作用进行了实证研究。实证结果表明城市化对于产业结构具有长期效应。产值结构上表现为城市化对第一产业具有持久的负向影响，但对第二产业具有长期稳定的正向影响，对第三产业的影响具有时滞性：就业结构上表现为对第一产业有着长期的负向效应，对第三产业具有持久的正向效应，但与第二产业长期关系不显著。整体来看，城市化在促进湖南经济的发展、推动产业结构优化升级中发挥着重要的作用。由此提出相关的政策建议。

Urbanization of Population and Industrial Structure Changes-Empirical Test Based on Hunan Province

Based on the relationship between the urbanization and industry structure optimization, this thesis does an empirical study on the influence which the urbanization of population exerts upon industry structure optimization, with the use of Dynamic Econometrics method on VAR model. The study indicates that urbanization exerts long-term influence on the industry structure a s a whole. In the view of the production value construction, the urbanization has an enduring negative effect on the primary industry, a long-term steady positive effect on the secondary industry,while has a time-lagged effect on the tertiary industry. In respect to employment structure, the urbanization plays a long-term negative role in the primary industry,but plays a lasting positive role in the tertiary industry,and has non significant relationship with the secondary industry.As a whole, the acceleration of urbanization plays an important role in the economic development , optimization and upgrading of industrial structure of the Hunan province. In view of the above, several relative policy proposals are put forward.