产业结构、空间结构与城镇化效率

我国城镇化发展已由以城镇化率增长为主的传统城镇化迈入以质量提升为主的新型城镇化，而城镇化效率是反映城镇化质量的综合指标。本文从产业和空间两个维度构建了我国城镇化效率提升的理论分析框架，并利用动态空间面板模型实证检验了产业结构和空间结构对城镇化效率的作用机制与影响效应。研究发现，与产业间结构的服务化调整相比，产业内各行业生产率增长才是城镇化效率提升的主要来源，并在考虑了一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立；在省域空间范围内，多中心的城市空间结构更有利于城镇化效率改善，但这一影响效应伴随着城镇化率提高和城市规模扩大而变弱。本文蕴含的重要政策启示是，当前我国应将城镇化效率纳入新型城镇化建设的考量目标，并以生产率增长作为产业结构调整的主导方向，尤其是在城镇化程度和城市规模均不高的情况下，慎重采用服务业对工业的“腾龙换鸟”或“退二进三”的城镇化发展战略。

Industrial Structure,Spatial Structure and Urbanization Efficiency

China’s urbanization development has entered the new type focusing on quality improvement from traditional urbanization focusing on urbanization rate growth,and urbanization efficiency is a comprehensive indicator reflecting the quality of urbanization.This paper constructs the theoretical analytical framework of China’s urbanization efficiency improvement from the two dimensions of industry and space,and empirically tests the mechanism and influence of industrial structure and spatial structure on urbanization efficiency by using China’s provincial panel data and dynamic space panel model.The study finds that compared with the service adjustment of the inter-industry structure,productivity growth in various industries is the main source of urbanization efficiency improvement,and the conclusion is still reliable after considering a series of robustness tests.In the provincial scope,the multi-center urban spatial structure is more conducive to the improvement of urbanization efficiency,but this effect is weakened by the increase of urbanization rate and the expansion of urban scale.The important policy implications of this paper are that China should incorporate urbanization efficiency into the consideration of new-type urbanization development,and take productivity growth as the dominant direction of industrial restructuring.Especially in case that urbanization and urban scale are not high,local governments should take precaution when implementing the urbanization development strategy of the service industry to replace manufacturing.