青岛市企业养老保险中短期收支预测及对策分析

养老保险是一项长期事业,不仅需要对短期的收支状况进行预测,更需要对较长时期的收支平衡进行预测。这是保证养老保险事业可持续发展的基础,是维护社会安定团结和保持经济稳定发展的保证。根据青岛市的发展趋势、劳动力人口总量、在职与退休人数以及工资增长幅度、企业缴费率、养老金水平、退休年龄等因素进行综合研究。借助保险学中的精算理论和社会学目前流行的多因分析统计方法,可预测青岛市今后至2030年的养老保险基金运行情况。针对养老保险存在的风险,青岛市中短期的养老保险工作应在强化征缴、加大扩面清欠力度的同时注重于调整规范退休和缴费时间,多渠道筹资,解决账户的空帐问题等。

The forecast and countermeasures to the income and expenses in short term on the endowment insurance of enterprises in Qingdao City

Endowment insurance is a long-term project. It needs not only the forecast of income and expenses inshort phase but also the forecast of the balance about income and expenses. The forecasts are bases of ensuring endowmentinsurance project to develop continuously and guarantee of vindicating social stability and solidification and keepingeconomy development. This question for discussion is based on the direction of Qingdao city, the population gross oflabor force, the population of in active service and retirement, the range of pay increase, the charge rate of corporationsturning in, the level of retirement pension and retirement age, etc. Furthermore, this study uses exact computationtheory in insurance study and sociology, and so on. In this study, we forecast the running thing of the endowmentinsurance funds from now to 2030, analyze the risk in endowment insurance, put forward the alert and give somecountermeasures and advice.