进城还是回村？——跨省婚迁者的空间选择

在经济社会转型、人口频繁流动的条件下，婚迁由乡到城的单向迁移转变成为城乡互动的双向流动。婚迁者留在城市还是回到乡村，要取决于多种条件。本研究通过测度跨省婚迁的性别比发现，自1990年来的20年间我国省际婚迁性别比下降近一半。全国省际婚迁性别比呈现城市-城镇-乡村两端大中间小的“微笑曲线”。在婚迁的空间选择上，男性以城市为主，女性则以乡村为主。进一步分析影响婚姻迁移的因素发现，经济变量中人均GDP对总婚迁和城市婚迁呈正向影响，城镇和乡村呈负向影响；居民收入和消费状况对婚姻迁移产生正向影响，但消费的城乡差别则对其产生负向影响；人口的城乡流动与迁移以及社会变量中各因素对跨省婚迁产生正向影响，而文化变量中的各因素则形成负向影响。

Go to Cities or Back to Village: the Spatial Selection of the Inter-provincial Marital Migrants in China

Migration of marriages have been changed into mutual migration between the urban and the rural areas instead of only way migration from the rural to the urban at the circumstances of social transition and frequent population movements. The marriage migrants＇ decision to stay in the urban or to go back to their villages depends on a variety of considerations. The interprovincial migration of marriage analysis shows that the sex ratio of inter-provincial marriage migrants has dropped by nearly half since 1990 in China. The sex ratio presents a ＂smile curve＂ among city - town- rural, i.e. there is higher ratio on the city and the rural while there is lower ratio in the town. In the migrants＇ spatial selection, the male tends to stay in the urban while the female tend to return the villages. Further analysis of the factors affecting migrations of marriage finds that per capita GDP affects the total marriage migration and migration toward the urban positively while affects the migrations toward the town and the villages negatively. Household income and consumption influences the migration of marriage positively while the differences of consumption between the urban and the rural impact on migration of marriage negatively. The migration between rural- urban and factors on social variable have positive impacts on interprovincial migration of marriage while the cultural factors have negative impacts on the inter-provincial migration of marriage.