信心如何影响中国通货膨胀

在Galí and Gertler（1999）的基础上，本文通过假设成本加成定价幅度是信心的函数，构造了基于信心的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线，并通过VAR模型和BVAR模型实证研究了信心是否能够影响中国通货膨胀。研究发现，企业家信心指数能够影响中国通胀，而消费者信心指数无法影响中国通胀；企业家信心指数对通货膨胀的影响机制类似于总需求冲击影响机制；VAR模型和BVAR模型的结论基本一致，这证实了本文结论的稳健性。

How Confidence Affect Inflation in China

Assuming the mark-up price is a function of the confidence index, we develop a New Keynesian Phillips Curve model based on confidence, and use VAR and BVAR to test how confidence index affect inflation in China. The results show that entrepreneur confidence index matters for inflation, while consumer confidence index does not, and the way entrepreneur confidence affect inflation is like the demand shock. As the VAR and BVAR show the same result, our results are robust.