基于人力资本贡献的产业结构转型路径研究——以广东省为例的实证分析

随着经济增长方式由"马克思增长"转变为"库兹涅茨增长",产业结构将实现由"二三一"向"三二一"的转型。改革开放以来,我国人力资本总量增长迅速,结构不断优化。然而,物质资本仍是经济增长的主要驱动力,尤其是第二产业增长的决定性要素,人力资本的贡献有下降趋势;基础人力资本是第一、三产业增长的主要驱动力或显著性变量,而专业人力资本对第二产业增长渐具显著性;经济增长仍属于以资本积累为基础的"马克思增长"。基于人力资本结构及其贡献的这种变化特征,我国产业结构转型的战略路径是:加快推进经济增长由物质资本推动向人力资本与技术进步推动的根本性转变,实现创新驱动型发展;第一产业要由传统农业向现代农业转型,加速农业现代化进程;第二产业要由劳动密集型向资本密集型与技术密集型转变,实现产业转型升级;第三产业要由传统服务业主导向现代服务业主导的转变,实现服务业的现代化与国际化。

Transition Path of Industrial Structure Based on Contribution of Human Capital——An Empirical Analysis of Guangdong as an Example

Industrial structure will change into "321" from "231" with the transformation from "Marx growth" to "Kuznets growth".The aggregation of human capital has had a rapid growth and the composition has been optimized since the reform and opening up in China.However,physical capital is still the dominant driving force to economic growth,especially to the secondary industry;and the contribution of human capital is on decline.Elementary human capital is the primary driving force or a significant variable to the growth of primary industry or the third industry,and the skilled human capital shows a significance gradually to the secondary industry.The economic growth of China belongs to the "Marx growth" based on capital accumulation distinctly.Therefore the transition path of industrial structure should be as follows:accelerating the change of the mode of economic growth from physical capital drive to human capital drive to bring about innovation drive development,vigorously developing modern agriculture to quicken the modernization of agriculture,speeding up the conversion of the secondary industry from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and technology intensive to promote industrial upgrading,and converting the leading industry of the third industry from traditional service into modern service to achieve modernization and internationalization gradually.