城市化发展中的产业升级:集聚推动、溢出效应与空间衰减——基于西北地区的空间计量

城市化和产业发展进程中均呈现集聚经济特征,城市化发展中的要素集聚对集聚形态下的产业层次提升具有明显的推动。基于2005—2012年西北地区30个城市的面板数据,利用空间计量方法分析了城市化发展对产业升级的推动效应。研究结果表明,西北地区城市化发展带来的要素集聚对产业升级具有明显的正向推动,同时城市化集聚对相邻城市的产业升级存在空间溢出效应,利用空间阈值权重矩阵进一步分析后发现,600km以内时城市化发展对产业升级存在显著的正向空间溢出,但溢出效应随空间距离的增长呈现下降趋势,超出600km之后转为负向空间溢出,同时城市化发展中其他结构性因素对产业升级存在空间效应,空间效应方向和趋势由于各结构因素的特征而有所差异。基于上述实证研究,提出了相应的政策建议。

Industrial Upgrading in the Development of Agglomeration Promote,Spillover Effect and Spatial Attenuation:Based Spatial Econometrics in the Northwest of China

Agglomeration is an important economic characteristic in the process of urbanization and industrial development ,elements agglomeration in the urbanization development has obvious promotion to industry upgrading agglomeration of spatial agglomeration .Based on city panel data in the northwest of China from 2005 to 2012 , using the spatial econometric methods to analyze the promoting effect from urbanization development to the industrial upgrading .The results showed ,the elements agglomeration in the urbanization development has obvious positive push to industrial upgrading ,at the same time ,the urbanization agglomeration of existing spatial spillover effect to industrial upgrading in the adjacent cities ;based on the spatial threshold weighted matrix after further analysis found urbanization has significantly positive spatial spillover effect to the industrial upgrading within 600km ,but spillover effects presents downtrend along with the growth of the space distance ,and the spillover effects turn to negative after more than 600km .At the same time other structural factors in the development of urbanization also existing spatial effect to industrial upgrading ,and the direction and trend of spatial effect are different due to the characteristics of the structure factors .Based on the above empirical study ,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations .