我国汇率政策的效应及汇率制度的选择

我国 1994年以后的汇率机制 ,在名义上是“有管理的浮动汇率制”,但实际上却是一种与美元挂钩的固定汇率制度。用最优货币区理论假说来衡量 ,这一制度与它所要求的经济条件之间存在很大反差 ,所以 ,人民币汇率制度存在重新选择的必然性。由于在货币政策的独立性、固定汇率制度和资本流动之间存在着所谓的“三元悖论”,所以选择人民币汇率制度时 ,必须寻求最能适应国情的组合。笔者认为 ,“目标区汇率制度”应当成为我国近期汇率制度的选择目标

Effects of Exchange Rate Policy of China and Option of Exchange Rate Mechanism

Since 1994, the exchange rate mechanism in China has been "a floating exchange rate under supervision" in name but a fixed exchange rate connected with US dollar in practice. This mechanism is contrary to the applied economic condition according to the hypothesis of optimal monetary area. So, a new option has to be made for RMB exchange rate mechanism. Keeping the "tri element paradox"among independent monetary policy, fixed exchange rate and capital flux in mind, it is essential to choose an exchange rate mechanism suitable to China. It is suggested that "objective exchange rate mechanism" be the optimal one for China at present.