劳动力成本上升对我国制造业出口和产业升级的影响

长期以来，我国制造业企业的劳动密集程度与出口程度具有正相关性，但到达“刘易斯转折点”（2004年左右）后，随着普通工人工资的上涨，劳动密集型产业在出口方面的表现逐渐受到削弱。采用2000—2008年我国制造业规模以上企业数据分阶段、分类型测算其出口份额和资本密度的变化，结果表明，在“刘易斯转折点”之后，制造业（特别是劳动密集型产业）的出口份额显著下降，其中劳动力成本占比越高的企业受到的冲击越大；同时，制造业企业也逐渐采用资本替代劳动的方式进行产业升级，以应对劳动力成本的上升。根据我国各区域经济发展的不同特点，东部地区应逐步发展高端产业，中西部地区应在承接东部产业转移的同时进一步发展资本密集型产业，以实现产业结构升级和区域协调发展。

The Impact of Rising Labor Cost on Export-oriented Manufacturing Industry and Industrial Upgrading

There is positive correlation between labor extensive degree and export degree of China’s manufacturing industries for a long time,after reaching Lewis turning point (around 2004),however,with the rising of general workers wages,the performance of labor-intensive industries in the aspect of export is weakened.Based on the 2000-2008 China’s above-scale manufacturing firm data,we calculate the periodic change of the export quota and capital-intensive degree for manufacturing industry.The results show that after the 2004’s Lewis turning point,the export quota of manufacturing industries,especially labor-intensive industries,has been significantly declining, among which the manufacturing industries with higher labor cost are more shocked.Meanwhile,the manufacturing firms gradually use capital to replace labor to make industrial upgrade in order to respond the rising of labor cost. According to different characteristics of China’s regional economy development,eastern region should gradually develop high-end industries, middle area should further develop capital-intensive industries while accepting industrial transfer from the eastern region so as to realize industrial structure upgrading and regional coordinated development.