甘肃省旅游业对区域经济发展贡献分析

基于乘数理论，选取1991—2014年甘肃省旅游业的统计数据，使用计量方法，建立甘肃省 GDP 与旅游收入的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数，研究甘肃省旅游业对国民经济增长的贡献。研究表明：甘肃省旅游业对区域经济贡献巨大，近五年旅游收入乘数平均值大于6；旅游收入乘数变化剧烈，呈现1997年、2003年、2008年三个拐点；甘肃省因基础设施等因素与旅游业的发展不同步，导致旅游业经济边际效应呈下降趋势。

An Analysis on Contribution of Tourism Industry to Regional Economy in Gansu Province

The quantitative research on economic contribution of tourism industry in Gansu is an important research direction ac-cording to the tourism statistics from 1991 to 2014 in Gansu Province. First,the C - D production function of GDP and GDP of tourism industry in Gansu Province is established. Then the income multiplier of Gansu tourism industry is calculated. Finally, the income multiplier is used to study the contribution of tourism industry to economic growth in Gansu province. The three main findings of our study were as follows. First,in the last five years,the tourism income multiplier of Gansu province is 6. 29,and the contribution of tourism to the regional economy is enormous. Secondly,Gansu tourism income multiplier has three inflection points in 1997,2003 and 2008. Thirdly,the economic marginal effect of tourism income is declining,because of the slow devel-opment of tourism infrastructure,technical conditions and tourism service quality.