西部大开发战略实施的转型升级效果评价*--采用合成控制法对技术进步和生态环境保护的考察

从技术进步和生态环境保护两方面切入，运用合成控制法对我国西部大开发战略实施的转型升级效果进行评价，分析结果表明：在技术进步方面，自西部大开发战略以来，西部地区总体的全要素生产率（TFP ）要高于合成西部地区，2000—2013年西部地区TFP 的年均增长率也高于合成西部地区，西部大开发战略的实施总体上促进了西部地区TFP的提高；在生态环境方面，西部地区的废气排放强度在2005年开始低于合成西部地区，废水排放强度在2010年开始低于合成西部地区，而固体废物排放强度持续高于合成西部地区，西部大开发战略的实施对西部地区生态环境的影响有正面的，也有负面，总体上看是积极的。进一步考虑生态环境的外部性及“中部崛起”和“振兴东北老工业基地”战略的实施等因素，西部大开发战略的实施对西部地区经济发展的转型升级是具有促进作用的。

Evaluation on the Effects of the Transformation and Upgrading of the Western Development Strategy in China-Survey on Technological Progress and Ecological Environment Protection Based on Synthetic Control Method

This paper evaluates the effects of the transformation and upgrading of the implementation of the western development strategy from such two aspects as technological progress and the ecological environment protection by using synthetic control method.The analysis results show that in the perspective of technological progress,since the implementation of western development strategy,the overall TFP in the west region is higher than that of synthetic western region,that the TFP average yearly growth rate of the western region during 2000-2013 is also higher than that of synthetic western region,that the implementation of western development strategy boosts TFP growth in the western region on the whole,furthermore,in the perspective of ecological environment,the waste gas emission intensity in western region is lower than the synthetic western regions since 2005,that waste water discharge in the western region is lower than that of synthetic western region since 2010,however,the emission intensity of solid waste is persistently higher than that of synthetic western region,that the implementation of western development strategy has positive and negative impact on the ecological environment in western region,as a whole,the impact is positive.By further considering the factors such as the externality of ecological environment, the strategic implementation of Middle Rise and Northeast Old Industrial Site Promotion and so on,the implementation of western development strategy has boosting effect on the transformation and upgrading of the economic development in western region.