新型农村社会保障对农民消费观念和耐用品消费的影响

基于2010年中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据，根据是否参加新型农村合作医疗、新型农村养老保险将农民分成两组，分别利用二元Logit回归模型比较两组农民耐用品消费情况，并检验消费观念在其中的中介作用，同时比较新农保首批试点区域与非试点区域农民耐用品消费的差异，研究表明：参加新型社会保障能有效促进农民耐用品消费，新农保制度的促进作用大于新农合制度，新农保制度试点区域农民耐用品消费高于非试点区域；新型社会保障制度不仅直接影响农民的消费行为，而且可以通过转变消费观念间接影响农民耐用品消费。应进一步扩大新型农村社会保障覆盖面，提高农民收入，以促进农民消费增长。

The Influence of New-type Rural Social Security on Farmers’ Consumption Concept and Consumption of Durable Goods

Based on CGSS data in 2010,the farmers are divided into two groups according to whether the farmers participate in new-style rural cooperative medical insurance and new-style rural social security,then the durable goods consumption of the farmers of the two groups is compared,its intermediary role of the consumption concept is tested and meanwhile the difference of durable goods consumption of the farmers between the pilot region and un-pilot region of new-style rural social security is compared by using dual Logit regression model.The research shows that the participation in new-style rural social security can effectively boost the durable goods consumption of the farmers,that the boosting effect of new-style rural social security is bigger than that of new-style rural cooperative medical insurance,and that the durable goods consumption in the pilot regions of new-style social security is higher than that of un-pilot regions.Therefore,the new-style social security can not only directly affect the consumption behavior of the farmers but also indirectly affect the durable goods consumption of the farmers by changing their consumption concept.China should further enlarge the covering area of new-style rural social security and raise the income of the farmers to promote the consumption growth of the farmers.