货币需求、投机性交易与中国宏观经济波动

基于含实体与虚拟经济对货币供给影响机制的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,探析中国货币供给是内生的抑或是外生的,并重点研究了货币需求冲击和投机性冲击对整个宏观经济稳定的影响。研究结果表明:中国货币供给具有内生性;货币需求冲击和投机性冲击对货币供给波动有较大影响,进而对通货膨胀产生显著作用,因此加强公众预期的引导和管理,从而减弱货币需求冲击和投机性冲击的效应,对于中国防范和遏制通胀具有重要意义。

Money Demand, Speculative Trading and the Fluctuation of Macro-Economy in China

Based on the consideration of the mechamsm oi the ettect of me rein anu fictitious, on the money supply, the paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model with real and fictitious sectors to make the judgment on whether Chings money supply is endogenous or exogenous and study the influence of money demand and speculative shock on the macroeconomic stability. The result shows that Chings money supply is endogenous, and money demand shocks and speculative attacks have a great impact on the money supply, and then have a significant influence on inflation. Therefore, strengthening the guidance and management of public expectations, thereby weakening the impact of money demand shocks and speculative attacks will have great significance to prevent and curb inflation in China.