基于模糊综合评价的我国海洋风能产业化环境外部效应研究简

运用模糊综合评价模型对2006～2011年我国海洋风能产业化环境外部效应进行评估。结果显示，在我国海洋风能产业化过程中，2006～2007年处于严格正效应状态，概率分别为34．4％、36．9％，2008～2011年处于正效应状态，概率分别为32．6％、28．2％、31．8％、33．0％。2006～2011年环境正外部效应（20％～40％）一直大于负效应（4％～12％），说明我国海洋风能产业化更有利于环境改善。但2006～2011年严格正效应的概率下降，而负效应的概率相对上升，说明随着产业化进程的深入，负外部效应日渐凸显。负外部效应主要产生于固体废弃物、辐射污染及对生态的破坏等。针对这些不利因素提出加强监管，财税支持，技术创新等解决对策。

Environmental Externalities of Marine Wind Energy Industrialization in China Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

This paper uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the environmental externalities of marine wind energy industrialization in China from 2006 to 2011. The results show that in the process of marine wind energy industrialization in our country, it was in the state of strictly positive effect from 2006 to 2007, and the rate is 34.4% and 36.9% respectively; it was in the state of positive effect from 2008 to 2011, and the rate is 32.6%, 28.2%, 31.8% and 33.0% respectively. Positive environmental externalities of 200642011 （20%-40%） was greater than the negative externalities （4%-12%）, which indicates that marine wind energy industrialization in our country is more beneficial to the environment improvement. However, the probability of strictly positive effect of 2006 to 2011 decreased, while the rate of negative effect rose, which shows that with the deepening of industrialization, the negative ex- ternalities was more and more distinct. Negative externalities mainly arise from the solid waste, radiation and ecological destruction, etc. Against these unfavorable factors, the author puts forward measures of strengthening supervision, the fiscal and taxation support, technological innovation and so on.