农村分家类型与三代直系家庭的变动趋势——基于对全国人口普查数据的分析

本研究基于全国人口普查数据，以及笔者已有关于农村分家类型数量模型的分析，对家庭结构再生产过程中的分化因素与组合因素进行了归纳，揭示了家庭结构再生产的内在逻辑，构建分家类型对家庭类型的微观作用机制．进而据此解释1990—2000年三代直系家庭的历史变动，并预测未来独子家庭结构再生产的变动趋势。结论是：（1）家庭结构再生产的过程中，家庭结构的分裂因素对组合因素的优势日益明显，无论是在独子家庭还是在多子家庭都是这样。（2）自1990年以来三代直系家庭比重上升的内在原因是多子分家类型的急剧减少．由此而减少了大量核心家庭，而相对提升了三代直系家庭的比例．三代直系家庭本身的演变趋势是走向日益瓦解，特别是在日益增加的独子家庭中，分裂因素日渐强势并占据主导地位，三代直系家庭在未来将会顽强坚持的判断可能是靠不住的。文章最后回应了学界关于中国家庭结构问题的争论。

Types of Rural Family Division and the Change Trends of Lineal Families with Three Generations: An Analysis of the National Census Data

Based on the national census data and the past researches of the rural family division type, this paper summarizes the differentiation factors and integration factors in the reproduction of family structure to reveal the internal logics of the family structure reproduction process. The dynamics of family division impacting family types are demonstrated to interpret the historical change of lineal family with three generations from 1990 to 2000 and a prediction of the future change in the family reproduction of single-child family. The conclusions are： 1. The differentiation factors are overriding the integration factors both in the single-child families and those families with more children in the process of family structure reproduction： 2. The number of lineal families with three generations has been rising since 1990s because that families with more children decreases dramatically, which results in the sharp reduction of nuclear families and increase the proportion of the lineal families with three generations relatively. However the lineal family with three generations tends to be dissolved considering the increasing single-child families and the differentiation factors of family increasingly override the integration factors of family. The argument that lineal families with three generations will survive in future is unconvincing.