城市规模、高铁开通与经济协同发展——以京津冀城市群为例

为了研究高铁开通对区域经济发展的影响,特别是中心城市在城市群中对其他城市发展的影响,以京津冀城市群为考察对象,选取区域内13个地级及以上城市为研究样本,以1995～2017年城市间的面板数据为实证样本,通过构建城市规模、高铁开通两个计量模型,并对模型可能的内生性问题进一步考察、模型的稳健性进行检验,就区域内中心城市是引领带动还是产生“虹吸效应”,高铁开通对城市协同发展有什么影响等问题展开研究。研究表明,城市规模对城市间的经济协同发展有影响,人口规模、经济规模以及土地规模的不同集聚导致这一影响效应不同,城市间的地理距离对这一影响效应存在明显的调节作用; 同时,高铁开通这一外生事件对城市间的经济协同发展也有影响,且高铁开通在城市规模对经济协同发展影响的路径中也存在显著的调节效应。

Urban scale,high-speed rail opening and synergetic development:a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

In order to study the impact of the opening of high-speed rail on the regional economic development, especially the impact of the central city on the development of other cities in the urban agglomeration, this paper studies whether the central city in the region is leading or producing "siphon effect", and the specific impact of the opening of high-speed rail on the synergetic development of cities. This paper takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the research object, selects 13 cities at prefecture level and above in the region as the research sample, and takes the panel data between cities from 1995 to 2017 as the empirical sample to carry out the research. Through the construction of two econometric models of urban scale and high-speed rail opening, this paper analyzes the possible endogenous problems of the model and tests the robustness of the model. The empirical results show that the scale of cities has an impact on the synergetic development of economy among cities. The agglomeration of population scale, economic scale and land scale leads to different effects. The geographical distance between cities has an obvious moderating effect on these effects. At the same time, the exogenous event of high-speed rail opening also has an impact on the synergetic development of economy among cities, and there is also a significant moderating effect of high-speed rail opening in the path of the impact of urban scale on the synergetic development of economy.