中国与“一带一路”六大经济走廊基础设施的双边贸易成本效应研究

在测算中国与“一带一路”六大经济走廊沿线国家双边贸易成本的基础上,基于引力方程和广义矩估计法,分析基础设施及其交互作用对双边贸易成本的影响。研究表明,随着时间推移,中国与六大经济走廊沿线国家的平均双边贸易成本虽然波折起伏,且与各经济走廊沿线国家的平均双边贸易成本的水平、下降幅度存在较大差异,但整体呈下降趋势。在控制人均收入差额、距离、贸易开放度、是否签署自由贸易协定、两国是否有共同边界等显著性影响因素后,研究发现,海运基础设施、陆空运基础设施以及二者的交互作用均能显著降低双边贸易成本,其中海运基础设施和陆空运基础设施交互作用的双边贸易成本效应较基础设施本身的双边贸易成本效应要低。

Research on the bilateral trade cost effects of the infrastructures ofChina and the Six Economic Corridors under "The Belt and Road"

Based on the measuring and calculating the bilateral trade costs between China and the countries along the Six Economic Corridors under "The Belt and Road", this paper analyzes the impact of infrastructures and their interactions on the bilateral trade costs based on gravity equation and the Generalized Method of Moments(GMM). The research shows that the average bilateral trade costs between China and the countries along the Six Economic Corridors fluctuated over time, but the overall downward trend is very significant; the average level and the descend range of the bilateral trade costs between China and each country along the economic corridors are quite diverse, but the overall trends are also downward. After putting the significant impactors under control, such as the gap of per capita income, distance, trade openness, whether or not having signed a free trade agreement, whether or not sharing a border, etc., the study finds that the maritime infrastructure, land and air transport infrastructure and their interaction can significantly reduce the bilateral trade costs, in which the effect of infrastructure interaction on reducing bilateral trade costs is lower than that of infrastructures themselves.