| 人民币汇率波动与贸易出口——基于边限协整检验的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周宏山,李琪.人民币汇率波动与贸易出口——基于边限协整检验的分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报,2007,7(4):86-90. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周宏山 李琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安交通大学,经济与金融学院,西安,710061 |
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| 摘 要： | 汇率波动是否会影响贸易出口,从历史文献看存在完全相反的观点。本文利用季度数据,考察中国1994年外汇管理体制改革后,人民币汇率波动和中美贸易出口的关系。使用自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型描述汇率波动,建立多元ARDL模型,运用边限协整检验说明汇率波动与贸易出口长期与短期影响关系。结论表明:从中美贸易的实证结果看,汇率波动对贸易出口无明显影响,而国内的产出水平和价格变动影响着贸易出口。
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| 关 键 词： | 汇率波动 贸易出口 边限协整检验 中美贸易 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-9107(2007)04-0086-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年12月25 |
Renminbi Exchange Rate and Trade Exports-evidence From Bound Testing |
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| ZHOU Hon-shan,LI Qi.Renminbi Exchange Rate and Trade Exports-evidence From Bound Testing[J].Journal of Northwest Sci-Tech University of Agriculture and Forestry(Social Science),2007,7(4):86-90. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Hon-shan LI Qi |
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| Abstract: | Whether the exchange rate can influence trade exports,from the literature review,there are contradictive views.The paper investigates Renminbi the relationship between exchange rate and trade exports using the quarterly data after the exchange rate reform in 1994.The exchange rate volatility is described by ARCH model.Using bound testing based on ARDL,we make the long-run and short-run relationship between exchange rate and trade exports.The conclusion is that the exchange rate volatility have no effect on the exports,however,Chinese people's income level and price affect the exports. |
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| Keywords: | exchange rate volatility trade exports bound testing Sino-US trade |
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