武器装备项目技术风险研究现状及展望

技术风险是武器装备项目研制过程中的重要风险，而且在整个研制过程中几乎始终存在，是造成费用风险、进度风险和性能风险的主要因素，因此，技术风险管理在武器装备项目风险管理中占据着极为重要的地位。在研究和归纳国内外有关武器装备项目技术风险研究文献的基础上，从技术风险的概念与内涵、技术风险管理过程、技术风险识别方法、技术风险评估方法四个方面对研究成果进行了系统性的总结和评述，并针对技术风险的识别方法和技术风险的定量估计模型两个关键的研究问题指出了进一步研究的方向。

Status Quo and Prospect of Research on Technical Risk for Weapon System Development

Technical risk is the very important risk for weapon system development(WSD),and it always exists in the process of WSD.Technical risk is the chief factor that brings cost risk,schedule risk and performance risk.Controlling and managing technical risk in the process of WSD are very important and necessary.On the basis of systematically reviewing the main literature for technical risk of WSD,the research scopes of the technical risk management are analyzed and summarized in this paper,which include the concept and the meaning of technical risk,the management process of technical risk,as well as the approaches to technical risk identification and assessment.Further research directions of the approaches to technical risk identification and the quantitative appraisement models for technical risk are also pointed out.