税收增长预测的灰色理论模型研究

税收是国家财政收入的重要来源,准确的税收预测结果对于制定各项经济政策具有非常重要的意义。文章在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,通过改变背景值,提出了用于中国税收预测的改进GM(1,1)模型。实例分析采用中国1994-2008年共15年的税收数据,预测结果表明:灰色预测可以较好地模拟出税收总量的变化趋势,而改进的GM(1,1)模型比传统的GM(1,1)模型所得到的预测结果更加合理。并且,整个预测过程思路简洁,易于编程实现,在当前中国税收政策变化力度加大、受国内外经济波动影响颇深的情形下,依然不失为一种有效的税收预测方法。

A Study on Tax Forecasting Model Based on Grey Theory

Tax is a main source of state finance income whose forecasting accuracy plays a significant part in various economical policies making.This paper proposes an improved GM(1,1) model for tax prediction by changing the background values in the traditional GM(1,1) model.Original tax data from 1994 to 2008 are analyzed and forecasting results indicate the grey model can simulate the trend growth embedded in the data quiet well,and the improved GM(1,1) model outperforms the traditional model.The whole process is ...