中国工业能源碳排放面板数据估算:1998—2010年

为弥补相关研究对中国工业碳排放估算过于粗略的不足,利用IPCC推荐的碳排放核算方法,基于30个省级行政区和36个两位数细分行业的工业能源消费数据,对1998—2010年中国工业能源碳排放总量、地区工业能源碳排放及工业细分行业能源碳排放进行估算,结果表明:工业能源碳排放占据中国能源碳排放的70%左右,主要集中分布在东部沿海地区(尤其是环渤海地区)和能源开采与加工、金属冶炼、设备制造及化工制品等重化工行业。因此,工业节能减排应考虑行业差异、地区差异及区域比较优势,依据行业与地区差别制定和实施适宜的工业低碳转型战略,推动工业结构优化升级与发展方式转变。

Panel Data Estimation of China’s Industrial Energy Carbon Emissions during 1998—2010

Considering that the current estimations do not supply sufficient information about China's industrial carbon emissions,this paper employs the reference approach of IPCC for carbon emission testing method and creates a panel data set of carbon dioxide emissions to estimate total amount of carbon emission of China's industrial energy,regional industrial energy carbon emission and industrial segmented industrial energy carbon emission during 1998—2010 based on the consumption data of industrial energy in 30 provinces and municipalities and 36 two-digit segmented industrial industries.The results show that industrial energy carbon emission amounts to approximate 70 percent of China's energy carbon emission,which are concentrated in eastern costal region especially in around Bohai region and in the heavy and chemical industries such as energy extraction,processing,metal smelting,equipment manufacturing and chemical products.Thus,industrial energy conservation and emission reduction should consider industrial difference,regional difference and regionally comparative advantage and industrial low carbon transition strategy should be worked out and implemented based on industrial and regional difference to boost industrial structure optimization and upgrading and industrial development mode transformation.