我国交通发展水平与经济增长关系的协整分析

利用我国1985-2008年29个省区的面板数据,运用面板协整和因果检验理论,分析了全国及东、中、西部的交通发展水平和经济增长相互作用的机制.检验结果表明,交通发展水平和经济增长均为一阶单整变量,它们存在稳定的协整关系.就全国以及东部地区而言,经济增长与交通发展水平在长期和短期中相互促进；而对于中西部地区,经济增长能够促进交通业的发展,但交通业的发展无法促使本地区经济增长.这一现象的形成与我国各地区产业分布不均衡、交通运输业的空间溢出效应和一些其他因素的影响有关.据此提出的政策建议包括:统筹规划,科学论证交通投资方案,将发展交通运输业和地区产业优惠政策相结合,降低物流成本.

An Empirical Research on Panel Co integration and Causality Relationship Between Transportation Industry and Economic Growth in China

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces during 1985-2008 and in use of co-integration method and panel-based vector error correction model,analysis is made of the relationship between development level of transportation industry and economic growth in the whole China and its weastern,central and western parts.The empirical results show that the development of transportation industry and economic growth are granger causes for each other in eastern regions and in the whole country as a whole.As for the central and western regions,enhancing transportation condition does little help to economic growth in short terms and long terms.The analysis of the results sheds light on the factors leading to them,that is,the regional differences of industries,the spatial spillover effect and others.It also offers policy implications for the development of transportation industry,which includes overall planning of investment program,preferential policies for developing regions,reduction of unnecessary transportation costs.