中国工业行业碳强度的因素分析——基于超越对数生产函数

为探究工业行业碳强度变化的成因,基于Kaya恒等式的碳强度分解,以碳强度表示产出,以经济增长、能源消费量、能源消费结构和技术进步为投入要素构建超越对数生产函数,通过各要素的碳强度产出弹性反映各要素对碳强度的贡献;并运用通径分析法进一步揭示各要素间的相互关系及其与碳强度的直接和间接关系。结果表明:能源消费结构的优化和技术进步抑制了工业行业碳强度的增长,能源消费量的增长和工业增加值的增长拉动了碳强度的增长,其中能源消费结构和能源消费量对工业行业碳强度的影响显著,因此降低工业行业碳强度的关键在于减少能源消费结构和能源消费量的碳强度产出弹性;能源消费量、工业增加值和能源消费结构对能源消费量的碳强度产出弹性起直接推动作用,技术进步起直接抑制作用;工业增加值和能源消费量对能源消费结构的碳强度产出弹性起直接推动作用,技术进步和能源消费结构起直接抑制作用。可见,工业行业对能源消费的依赖性较强,降低工业行业碳强度应主要依靠技术进步转变能源利用方式,提高能源效率,优化能源消费结构。

The Factor Analysis of China's Carbon Intensity in the Industry-Based on Trans-log Production Function

To explore the cause of carbon intensity change in the industry, this paper takes carbon intensity as the output, treated economic growth, energy consumption, energy consumption structure and technological progress as the input factors, and built trans-log production function to calculate the output elasticity, which could be regarded as the contribution of each factor to carbon intensity, based on the decomposition model of Kaya identity. Then, path analysis was used to reveal the relationship between each factor and its direct and indirect influence on carbon intensity. Results show that the optimization of energy consumption structure and technological progress inhibit the growth of carbon intensity in the industry, while the increase of energy consumption and the increase of the industrial added value stimulate the growth of carbon intensity. Because energy consumption structure and energy consumption have the significant impact on carbon intensity, it''s the key to reducing carbon intensity in the industry to cut down the carbon intensity output elasticity of energy consumption structure and energy consumption. Furthermore, energy consumption, industrial added value and energy consumption structure increase carbon intensity output elasticity of energy consumption, whereas technological progress has the direct inhibiting effect. Industrial added value and energy consumption accelerate the carbon intensity output elasticity of energy consumption structure directly, but technological progress and energy consumption structure have the opposite effect. Hence, in view of the industry with a strong reliance on energy consumption, to reduce carbon intensity in the industry should rely mainly on technological progress to transform energy utilization, improve energy efficiency and optimize energy consumption structure.