减排约束下中国天然气供需安全评价:2006-2014年

为准确把握中国天然气供需安全状态,以2006-2014年的数据为样本,在模糊隶属度函数量化指标值的基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP)和熵值法确定指标权重,基于线性加权和函数计算均方根进行综合评价。结果表明:(1)中国天然气供需安全指数呈现"N形"波动,2006-2007年天然气供需安全指数上升。2007-2013年天然气供需安全指数年均下降1.7979。2013年以来天然气供需安全指数开始回升,天然气供需安全压力有所缓解。(2)天然气供应安全指数从2006年的17.5914下降到2013年的0.1556,峰谷差17.4359。天然气需求安全指数呈现"W形"波动。天然气市场安全指数相对稳定,2013年以来略有上升,天然气市场风险逐年下降。(3)天然气供需安全很大程度上取决于天然气供应是否安全。因此,建议从确保天然气稳定供应、提高天然气使用效率和降低市场风险方面采取措施,维护天然气供需安全。

Evaluation of Natural Gas Supply and Demand Security under the Background of Emission Reduction Constraints in China: 2006-2014

In order to accurately grasp the natural gas supply and demand security status of China, we took the data sample from 2006 to 2014 to determine the basic weight and index quantization value based on analytic hierarchy process, entropy method and fuzzy membership function, and calculate RMS and evaluate the natural gas supply and demand security status using the linear weighted function. The results showed that:(1)The natural gas supply and demand security index exhibited "N-shaped" fluctuations in China, which rose from 2006 to 2007. The natural gas supply and demand security annual index declined 1.7979 from 2007 to 2013. The natural gas supply and demand security index began to rise since 2013, the stress of which thus decreased. (2)The natural gas supply security index had fallen from 17.5914 to 0.1556 with a peak of 17.4359 from 2006 to 2013. The natural gas demand security index showed "M-shaped" fluctuations. But the natural gas market security index was relatively stable, which witnessed a slight increase since 2013, and the risk of the natural gas market declined year by year.(3)The natural gas supply and demand security depended on supply. Therefore, we gave some advice from three aspects to improve the natural gas supply and demand security:take measures to ensure natural gas supply, improve use efficiency and reduce market risk.