城市融入对农民工生育意愿的影响机制

采用2016年“中国劳动力动态调查”数据考察了中国城镇化进程中城市融入对农民工生育意愿的影响。结果显示城市融入显著降低了农民工生育意愿,且对于80后和东部地区农民工生育意愿的负向效应更大。进一步探讨影响机制发现:定居意愿增加和男孩偏好下降是城市融入影响农民工生育意愿降低的两种路径。以融入为核心的“人的城镇化”是中国经济社会发展的必然趋势,通过从事实和机制两方面探讨城市融入对农民工生育意愿的影响,为客观评估城镇化的生育效应,增加人口预测工作科学性,人口政策动态调整和优化等工作提供了事实基础和理论启示。

The Influencing Mechanism of Migration Workers’Child-bearing Willingness

Based on the data of the China Labor force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)2016,this research investigates how migration workers’integration into the urban community affects their child-bearing willingness.The results indicate that migration workers’inability to merge into urban community greatly reduces their willingness of reproducing.The negative effect is most evidently manifested in the migration workers born in the 1980s and from the eastern area.Further research finds out that decreasing willingness to settle down in cities and preference for boys are the two main reasons accounting for the reduced reproduction willingness.“The urbanization of people”whose core is integration is the inevitable trend of China’s economic and social development.By exploring the effect of urban integration on migration workers’reproduction willingness from the aspects of truth and mechanism,this research aims to give an objective evaluation of the effect of urbanization on fertility,which will improve the scientificity of population prediction and provide factual support and theoretical foundation for the adjustment and optimization of population policy.