我国体育产业与经济发展的协整分析

采用文献资料法、时间序列分析法,收集中国2002-2013年体育产业增加值和GDP时间序列数据,根据协整理论对序列进行单整检验,结论显示两者都是一阶单整的非平稳时间序列,具有长期均衡关系,通过协整分析,得出体育产业增加值对国内经济生产总值的弹性系数是0.945 308,误差修正模型结果显示短期弹性为0.103 175,最后进行Granger因果关系检验,两者间存在单向因果关系,即GDP是体育产业增加值的Granger原因,反之不成立.为促进体育产业和经济协调发展,国家需要加大对体育产业的政策扶持力度,不断完善体制机制、优化体育产业,充分发挥体育产业对经济的拉动作用.

Co-integrative Analysis between Sports Industry and Economic Development in China

Using the methods of literature review and time series measurement,the added value and GDP time series data in sports industry from 2002 to 2013 has been studies,based on the co-integration theory.The conclusion shows that both of them are non-stationary time series and single integers,which proves the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two.Further co-integration analysis shows that the elastic co-efficiency of added value in sports industry to GDP is 0.945308,and the error correction model shows that the short-term elasticity is 0.103175.At last,Granger causality test has been conducted,which shows their one-way causal relationship,which means that GDP is the Granger reasons for the added value in sports industry,and it is incorrect conversely.In order to promote the coordinated development between sports industry and economy,policy support to the sports industry should be increased-constantly improving the system and mechanism,and at the same time,optimizing the sports industry,thus giving full play to its promoting functions to economy.