中国对俄出口稳定性的微观视角分析

为考察中国对俄出口的稳定性,选取1996—2014年6位HS微观贸易数据,通过计算中国对俄出口增长的二元边际及稳定性指数,实证分析二元边际对中国对俄出口稳定性的影响及贡献度。结果显示,扩展边际与集约边际是中国对俄出口波动的原因,扩展边际、价格边际在较长时期内都会抑制出口波动。为促进中国对俄出口的长期稳定增长提供新的微观视角。

Microscopic analysis on stability of export of China to Russia

In order to investigate the stability of exports of China to Russia, the 6-digit microcosmic data from 1996 to 2014 are selected. Through calculating the binary margin and stability index of export growth of China to Russia, the influence and contribution of binary margin to export growth of China to Russia is empirically analyzed. The results show that the extensive margin and the intensive margin are the two factors that cause export fluctuation of China to Russia. The export fluctuation can be controlled by the extensive margin and the price margin in a long-term. It provides a new micro-perspective to promote the long-term stable growth of export of China to Russia.