中国粮食生产区域格局变化及其成因实证分析 ———基于空间计量经济学模型

基于1978—2005年中国各省区粮食生产面板数据,运用生产集中度从大区和省区两个层面综合考察粮食生产区域格局变化趋势,并从空间计量经济学角度,采用Moran’s I指数验证了中国各省区粮食生产总量数据的空间特性,在此基础上利用Panel Data结合空间误差模型实证分析中国粮食生产区域空间格局变化的成因。计量结果显示:农业劳动力数量及其受教育程度,化肥、农机动力等投入,有效灌溉面积,农村水库库容量等因素均对各地区粮食生产总量的增长起到显著正向作用;而除涝面积,自然灾害成灾受灾面积比例,农民非农就业收入比重等因素对粮食生产总量的变化起到负向作用;且空间误差参数结果表明本地区的粮食生产会受到相邻地区粮食生产负方向的影响。

Empirical Studies on the Variation and Contributing Factors of Regional Grain Production Strcuture in China——Based on Spatial Econometrics Models

Based on the panel data of provincial grain production in China from 1978 to 2005,the trend of Chinese provincial grain structure variation was analyzed using the index of production convergence both on the region and province levels.Then with the spatial econometrics theory and methods,the spatial characteristics of Chinese grain production data was checked by the Moran's I index and the contributing factors of the variation above were studied using Spatial Error Model.The empirical results show that: the variation of Chinese grain spatial structure is effected positively by the quantity and quality of agricultural labour,input of fertilizer and agricultural machine power,effective irrigation areas and quantity of rural water pools while effected negatively by the areas of waterlogging control,the scale of natural hazard and the rural people's non-agriculture income proportion.What's more,the result of spatial error parameter presents that the grain production of local area can be influnced oppositely by the neighbour region's grain production.