进出口与人民币汇率波动性关系的实证研究

汇率波动性是影响国际贸易的重要因素之一。文章主要通过构建计量经济学模型对进出口贸易与人民币汇率波动性之间的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明:中国出口总额和美国进口总额的波动性与人民币对美元汇率的波动性存在一定的正向相关关系;中国进口总额和美国出口总额的波动性与人民币对美元汇率的波动性存在一定的负向相关关系。为控制汇率的波动性,中国应当适度改变国际贸易长期顺差的格局,提升人民币的影响力。

AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMPORT & EXPORT TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATE OF RMB

Exchange rate volatility is a major factor influencing international trade.This paper presents empirical evidence for the relationship between import & export trade and exchange rate of RMB by constructing econometric models.The evidence demonstrates that the volatility of total amount of Chinese export and US import has some positive relationship with the volatility of Chinese Yuan to US dollar exchange rate and,in contrast,the volatility of total Chinese import and US export has some negative relationship with the volatility of Chinese Yuan to US dollar exchange rate.Therefore,in order to control the volatility of exchange rate and enhance the influence force of Chinese Yuan,China must make a foroper extent to,change the situation of long-term favorable balance in international trade.