TPP与RCEP贸易自由化经济效果的GTAP模拟分析

TPP和RCEP被视为推进亚太区域经济合作的两条关键路径,伴随美国退出TPP和RCEP坚定推进,学术界将更多视线不断聚焦在RCEP上,RCEP替代TPP的呼声日渐高涨.RCEP究竟是否可以替代TPP?是否可以对中国和世界其他国家及地区带来相较于TPP的更多优势?文章运用GTAP模型,假设TPP和RCEP均实现货物贸易自由化,分别从福利水平变化、实际GDP变化、贸易条件变化、进出口和贸易平衡变化四个方面给其成员和非成员带来的经济效应进行了量化分析.研究发现,从成员和非成员整体利益得失看,RCEP可以替代TPP.如果TPP和RCEP各自实现货物贸易自由化,带给区域内成员的正面经济效应十分明显,区域外成员则遭受不同程度损失;如果同时实现货物贸易自由化,则RCEP成员经济效应高于TPP成员,中国从RCEP单独货物贸易自由化中获得的经济效应高于TPP和RCEP均成立时获得的经济效应;无论TPP还是RCEP,欧盟、中国香港和中国台湾在其货物贸易自由化时均会遭受损失.为应对未来全球区域经济一体化可能带来的挑战,中国应从三个圈层积极推进和构建面向全球的、高标准的自由贸易区网络.

GTAP simulation analysis of the economic effects of TPP and RCEP

TPP and RCEP are seen as two key pathways for advancing Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation, with the United States withdrew from TPP and RCEP is moving forward firmly, the academic community focus more on RCEP, and RCEP''s call for substitute for TPP is growing.Can RCEP replace TPP? Whether it can bring more advantages to China and other countries or regions than TPP? Based on the GTAP model, the paper assumes that both TPP and RCEP are fully liberalized in the trade of goods, and the economic effect of their members and non-members is changed from four aspects:welfare level change, real GDP change, changes in terms of trade, import and export and trade balance.The study found that RCEP could replace TPP as seen from the overall interests of members and non-members.If TPP and RCEP realize the liberalization of trade in goods, the positive economic effect of members is very obvious, and non-members suffer losses in different degrees.If the trade in goods is liberalized at the same time, the economic effect of RCEP members is higher than that of TPP members; China''s economic effects gains from RCEP''s individual trade liberalization is higher than the economic effects obtained when TPP and RCEP are both established; Regardless of TPP or RCEP, the EU, Hong Kong and China''s Taiwan will suffer losses when trade in goods is completely liberalized.In response to the challenges of future global regional economic integration, China should actively promote the global network of free trade zones from three circles.