基于Logit模型的区域集镇系统需求分析及规模确定研究

集镇迁建并非简单的将集镇按照原规模从一个地方搬到另一个地方，集镇迁建规模的大小．应该根据迁入区的实际需求（需求规模）来确定，需求的大小主要取决于村民对集镇的选择行为，即越多的人选择到某个集镇进行活动，该集镇的需求规模越大，反之越小。影响集镇需求的因素很多，包括交通时间、交通费用、集镇服务种类、服务质量等，本文将其概括为广义费用和集镇效用（服务能力），建立反映村民选择行为的Logit模型分析集镇需求情况，并将其应用于区域集镇系统布局优化中，以我国西部某地为例进行实证分析，反映搬迁前后一定区域内各榘镇需求规模的变化，同时计算出新集镇的需求规模，为集镇迁建规模的确定及其布局优化提供科学的参考。

Study on System Requirements of Regional Market Town and Its Scale Determination Based on Logit Model

Market town moving not simply means move the market town from one place to another,the scale of market town moved should decided by the practical demand of the region （requirement scale） for settling in. The size of demand is up to the choice behavior of villagers, the more the people choosing to one market town, the bigger its demand scale would be, vice versa. There are a lot of factors influence the demand scale of the market town, which include tragic time, traffic cost, servings and quality of the market town, the paper sums them up to broad cost and avail of market town （ serving level）, sets up Logit model reflecting the choice behavior of villagers to analyze the demand of market town, take a place in western of our country as an example to reflect the demand change of market town system before and after moving, and figure out demand scale of the new market town, in order to offer scientific reference of scale determination and system layout optimization for market town moving.