DeFinettian Consensus |
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Authors: | L.G. Esteves S. Wechsler J.G. Leite V.A. González-López |
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Affiliation: | (1) Universidade De São Paulo, IME-USP, C. Postal 66281, CEP 05315-970 S. Paulo, SP, Brazil |
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Abstract: | It is always possible to construct a real function , given random quantities X and Y with continuous distribution functions F and G, respectively, in such a way that (X) and (Y), also random quantities, have both the same distribution function, say H. This result of De Finetti introduces an alternative way to somehow describe the `opinion' of a group of experts about a continuous random quantity by the construction of Fields of coincidence of opinions (FCO). A Field of coincidence of opinions is a finite union of intervals where the opinions of the experts coincide with respect to that quantity of interest. We speculate on (dis)advantages of Fields of Opinion compared to usual `probability' measures of a group and on their relation with a continuous version of the well-known Allais' paradox. |
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Keywords: | Field of coincidence of opinions Allais' paradox |
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