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DeFinettian Consensus
Authors:L.G. Esteves  S. Wechsler  J.G. Leite  V.A. González-López
Affiliation:(1) Universidade De São Paulo, IME-USP, C. Postal 66281, CEP 05315-970 S. Paulo, SP, Brazil
Abstract:
It is always possible to construct a real function phgr, given random quantities X and Y with continuous distribution functions F and G, respectively, in such a way that phgr(X) and phgr(Y), also random quantities, have both the same distribution function, say H. This result of De Finetti introduces an alternative way to somehow describe the `opinion' of a group of experts about a continuous random quantity by the construction of Fields of coincidence of opinions (FCO). A Field of coincidence of opinions is a finite union of intervals where the opinions of the experts coincide with respect to that quantity of interest. We speculate on (dis)advantages of Fields of Opinion compared to usual `probability' measures of a group and on their relation with a continuous version of the well-known Allais' paradox.
Keywords:Field of coincidence of opinions  Allais' paradox
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