报童订购行为: 订购成本与性别影响因素分析

经理人的决策质量对于实现高效运营管理至关重要。然而，在商业实践中，经理人的决策过程常常伴随着非理性行为，并最终导致决策偏差。决策偏差是企业无法实现高效管理的根本问题，其成因广泛、机理深邃，治理困难，因此面临着重大的研究挑战。近年来，学术界针对运营管理中的各种场景，尤其是库存和供应链管理，进行了一系列研究。这些研究广泛识别了不同类型的决策偏差，并反复检验了这些偏差的稳健性，探索了决策偏差的形成机制和干预治理方法。然而，现有的研究视角广泛，方向零散，缺乏对决策偏差的系统性认知和梳理。因此，本文系统性地讨论库存与供应链管理中的决策者行为偏差问题，分析其科学内涵和形成机理，并对一些重要进展进行梳理和凝练。同时，对其研究与实践的未来方向进行了展望，为学术研究和业界应用提供关于决策偏差的深入洞察，以期实现“知偏识正”。

Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment

The decision quality of managers is crucial for achieving efficient operations management. However, in real practice, the decision-making process of managers often involves irrational behavior, leading to decision biases. Decision biases are the fundamental problems that prevent businesses from achieving efficient management. The causes of decision biases are wide-ranging and complex, making it difficult to manage, thus facing significant research challenges. In recent years, academic community has conducted a series of studies on various scenarios in operations management, especially inventory and supply chain management. These studies have extensively identified different types of decision biases and repeatedly tested the robustness of these biases, explored the formation mechanisms of decision biases, and intervention methods. However, existing research perspectives are extensive and scattered, lacking systematic understandings and arrangement of decision biases. Therefore, this study aims to systematically discuss the problem of decision-maker behavioral biases in inventory and supply chain management, analyze their scientific connotations and formation mechanisms, and summarize some important progress. At the same time, future directions for research and practice are proposed, to provide in-depth insights into decision biases for both academic research and industry application, and achieve “understanding the factors behind decision biases and promote unbiased decision-making”.