一个动态的汇率模型

汇率预测是众所周知的国际经济中的一大难点，许多经济学家曾努力从不同的角度去揭示汇率的规律并建立预测模型，但是从公开发表的资料看来，这些模型都未曾给出比随机游动模型（或鞅模型）更稳健的结果。本文对以往的模型进行了大量的比较分析发现，以前的模型都具有以下几个共同的特点：（１）以前的汇率模型都具有静态性，即模型中的各自变量只能影响同一时刻的因变量。其实，经济变量的相互作用往往具有滞后性，各自变量影响的往往不是同一时刻的因变量，而是随后时间的因变量。（２）以前的汇率模型大多数是两国模型，考虑的数据往往是…

Preliminary Research on the Efficiency of State Treasury Bonds Market

Aiming at the feature of state treasury bonds price that it mainly depends on its interest rate and maturity date, this article studies the efficiency of bonds market from the reaction of its price to the cut-down of interest rate by central bank with the event study method. And indicates that the current market is not a semi-strong form of efficient market, although its efficiency is being improved continuously.