基于STIRPAT模型的“两型农业”发展驱动因素研究

基于扩展的STIRPAT随机模型，引入农村人口、农村人均农业GDP、农村能源强度、产业结构、农村工业化水平、农业科技、农产品贸易等7个变量，利用1991--2009年的统计数据，对两型农业发展的驱动因素及其增速进行了实证分析。结果表明：农村人均农业GDP对两型农业驱动不明显；农村人口、农村能源强度、产业结构、农村工业化水平、农产品贸易对资源节约有负向影响，农业科技对资源节约有正向影响；农村人口、农村能源强度、产业结构和农业科技对环境友好有负向影响，农产品出口对环境友好有正向影响；通过对资源节约和环境友好增速进行分解得出，产业结构是影响资源节约变动的最大因素，而农村能源强度是影响环境污染变动的最大因素。因此，促进两型农业发展需要优化农村产业结构、农村工业结构、农产品贸易结构和能源结构，构建两型农业科技支撑体系。

Driving forces of development of ＂two-oriented agriculture＂： Based on STIRPAT model

The paper constructed the STIRPAT stochastic models. Using statistics data of 1991 to 2009, this paper empirically analyzed the driving forces of the development of two-oriented agriculture and the growth rate. The results showed that： the rural wealth level has no obvious effect on two-oriented agriculture, while factors such as rural population, rural energy intensity, rural industrial structure, rural industrialization level, agricultural Wade have negative impact on resources conservation, and agricultural science and technology have positive impacts on resources conservation. Rural population, rural energy intensity, industrial structure of agriculture and agricultural science and technology have negative impacts on environment, agricultural exports have a positive impact on the environment. Agricultural structure is the most important factor affecting the range of resource-saving change, and rural energy intensity is also the most important factor affecting the range of environmental change. Therefore, we need to optimize the indus~al structure in rural areas, rural industrial structure, agricultural trade structure and energy structure, and need to build two-oriented agricultural technology supporting system to advance the development of two-oriented agriculture.